Forex holy grail
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It never existed and it never will. You see, not properly managing trading risk in forex is the number 1 reason why many forex traders lose money. If you win a lot more that what you lose on your trades, you will make a lot of money trading forex in the long run. What matters in forex trading is not how much money you make when you are right but how much money you lose when you are wrong.
Its not the trading system or the indicator that causes the trader to lose. Even the Holy Grail has Pitfalls The holy grail exists, but it has to be handled with caution. You can find the grail by trading the right instruments that move with maximum volatility, i. You do not have to be right or forecast the major moves: you just have to be there, cut your losers short, and let your winners run.
The natural tendency of the market to produce fat tails will do your work for you. There are two major pitfalls that this might lead you to. The first is that you will be better served by a more intelligent exit strategy than simply aiming for a fixed reward to risk multiple. You need to be booking wins above 10 R:R, ideally towards 25 R:R or even beyond, but each trade will be different.
Look to exit around those levels but use some intelligence and discretion. Also, being prepared to move stops to break even when the trade is a certain distance or time in profit should help. This will inevitably cause very large losing streaks which will severely test both your mental strength and your money management strategy. The grail gives gold, but it is hot to touch and burns the unwary!
Do you have what it takes to sit through twenty or more losing trades in a row? Do you have a money management strategy that will properly protect you from ruin should you begin with a long losing streak? Will you be diversified and uncorrelated enough in order to keep losing streak risk to a minimum?
One final danger is worth a mention. It is natural to try to filter entries. However it is very problematic to distinguish entries that are likely to reach a ratio of Furthermore, missing just one of these winners will set back your overall expectancy, unless the method used will also filter out at least 25 losing trades at the same time. These are some questions to ponder and investigate. Spend some time back testing.
The holy grail has been placed in your hands! If the most volatile instruments are traded in this style, it is possible to be nicely profitable over time without having to really make any analysis or decisions. Despite that, this path has some serious pitfalls that must be avoided intelligently.
Back to the Data We can begin by taking a look at the historical data showing how entries upon next bar breaks of H4 engulfing candles performed on the most volatile instruments from to , a three year period, depending upon the reward to risk multiples that might have been selected as targets for trade exits: This table contains two immediately useful pieces of information.
Firstly, we would have taken a total of 2, trades. Secondly, the positive expectancy per trade rises dramatically until a reward to risk ratio of is reached, after which it rises very slowly before falling off a cliff at above This data is not shown in the above table, but of those 2, trades taken, only were winners.
These numbers would put a severe strain on any kind of money management strategy, as the probability of suffering enormous losing streaks would be extremely high. It is more likely than not there was a streak of between and consecutive losing trades during that three year period.
Selective Entries Our problem is that we are currently set to enter a very large number of trades, the vast majority of which will be losers. If we can find a way to enter significantly less trades without suffering a proportionate fall in the expectancy per trade, we can worry less about the strain of likely losing streaks. The danger here is that when profit rests upon a relatively small number of winning trades, you have to be very careful not to cut yourself out of many of those.
Fortunately, using the historical data from to , there seems to be a relatively simple filter which does the job. To win large trades, a trend has to be present. In an uptrend, the price pulls back within the trend making a major low, and then resumes its original direction.
By only taking engulfing candles in such an uptrend that make a low lower than the previous 4 candles, or that directly follow such a candle, we are able to filter out a lot of the losing trades, without sacrificing too many of the winning trades. Here is a table of the performance over the same three year period using this entry filter: It can be seen that overall, the total number of trades is reduced by slightly more than one third, but the winning trades tend to be reduced by a smaller percentage, resulting in rises in the expectancies from to The probable consecutive losing streak is reduced to somewhere between 80 and 90 trades, which is also an improvement.
It is noticeable that this filter had a strongly negative effect upon the Gold trades. Other entry filters that could improve performance would include entering only after engulfing candles with relatively small ranges, as the total positive distance required to be a winner is shorter. Time of day and trend filters can also be applied, although these can be pretty risky. For example, Gold tends to short well before the London open and long well after the London close.
The Yen pairs tend to perform well following the first candle representing the initial few hours of the Tokyo session. Bounces off major support or resistance levels can also be the origins of good trades, although it is surprising how many of the best resumptions within trends begin ahead of these levels. Selective Exits So far, we have only looked a methodology that exits at a fixed R multiple.
This could be refined by setting a target based upon an average volatility or number of pips, so that trades with larger risks can be exited at smaller R multiples. Additionally, there is the question of raising stop losses to break even and beyond. We have no hard data, but it is likely that moving the stop loss to break even somewhere between two days and one week after entry, or after the trade has moved a certain favourable distance, would enhance the results.
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