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Two teams play against each other to win a best-of-seven series to advance to the next round, with the elimination tournament starting in April and continuing until the beginning of June. The two conference champions earn a place in the Stanley Cup Finals. The team with the most points during the regular season benefits from home-ice advantage, whereas fixtures in previous rounds award home-ice advantage to the higher-ranked team. The Bell Centre and United Center are recognized as fortresses, and this often means opposition teams often lack the belief to win.
Of course, some teams struggle whether they play at home or away. In , the Buffalo Sabres equaled the Pittsburgh Penguins record for the longest losing streak in NHL history at 18 games. Distance to Travel Distance to Travel Although all 32 NHL teams are split into four divisions across two conferences, the size of the United States and Canada means teams often travel thousands of miles.
This can have a big impact on practice time and stamina. The Stanley Cup Finals clash between the Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks is the longest distance between two cities in Cup Finals history, with 2, miles separating the teams.
Check Injury Reports Check Injury Reports With ice hockey being such a fast-paced and aggressive sport, players often suffer injuries such as lacerations, sprains, contusions, and fractures. The hectic NHL schedule also means players are prone to overuse and suffer injuries. Checking injury reports can present valuable NHL betting opportunities. Some sites use decimal odds format to display these and others use American odds format. With most you can change the settings to display the odds in either format.
If you are new to betting, click and read one of those articles so you can understand how betting odds work. Understanding the NHL Betting Market Before discussing any form of NHL betting strategy, it is important to understand it is for all intents and purposes an efficient betting market. The required data to handicap is widely available on the web. There is also a lot of it.
An NHL regular season has 32 teams playing 82 games each for a total of 1, regular season games. Casual players can benefit from this without knowing predictive modeling themselves. This starts for the reason that some bookmakers are so comfortable in their handicapping and risk management on NHL that they base their odds on a dimeline.
If doing the same with a nickel line this falls to 1. With handicapping, that can be cut to a fraction of a percent. It is possible for any player to get lucky as NHL betting done correctly has much better odds than most casino games. Not on average, but big scores in casinos are common enough. Here, the chances are even better — but using multiple betting sites to shop odds is key.
To take it a step further, it becomes possible to predict scoring using the betting market. To do this is it important to use sites that offer NHL bets at low margins. The next step in predicting scores based on the market is to use the oddsportal. Be sure to create an account and log-in as this will give you access to the highest number of bookmakers.
For full game the market has: Anaheim Ducks 1. Our estimate here is the market is predicting 5. Our calculation is that this translates to a predicted exact score of Ducks 2. Knowing this, we can calculate the probability of many different outcomes occurring. Applying Poisson Distribution to NHL Betting If you can predict an exact score, it becomes possible to calculate odds for almost anything using a distribution model.
The last three items are variables. If we know the Ducks are expected to score 2. This means a To handicap an exact score of run the Ducks chances of scoring 4 exact and the Red Wings chances of scoring 2 exact. Keeping the percentages as a decimal format, multiple the two to get the probability of an exact score of If you understand implied probability , shop betting sites offering odds on correct score.
Look for any odds where the implied probability thereof is less than the true probability just calculated using Poisson. Furthermore, if you calculate all correct scores using Poisson you can then put them into a chart for pricing about anything. For capping Ducks If you want to calculate if both teams will score add all the probabilities where teams score at least one. Advanced NHL Handicapping What was covered in the previous section was simply an introduction for novice bettors.
To take it a step further, first understand Poisson is not exact. Not all scoring in ice hockey is random, because the pace of the game changes depending on the score. There is also the issue of goalies being pulled at the end of the game leading to 5 on 6 scoring and empty net goals.
Successful NHL bettors factor the covariance and use a bivariate Poisson distribution. Typically you get much better odds for laying goals on the puck line, and even though you may think there is some extra value there, you have to be wary of a late-game empty net goal. When a team is losing at the end of a game, they tend to remove their goaltender for another skater to gain an advantage in the offensive zone. However, this leaves their net empty and vulnerable to an easy goal, which can kill a puck line.
These empty net situations are growing in time, as some teams now pull their goaltender with several minutes left if they are down by two goals. This can also have a detrimental effect on the total number of goals scored in a game…. Watch for who is playing net When you look at the NHL schedule, you need to keep track of when teams are playing on back-to-back nights. In these situations, it is highly likely that one of the games will be started by the backup goaltender.
With that in mind, you may want to adjust your bets based on which players are in goal. Also, there are plenty of stats on how teams fare on the second half of a back-to-back situation regardless of who is playing nets, and this information can help you get on the right side of the action. In-game Excitement While traditionally gamblers have bet on the end result of the game, these days in-game betting has become very popular.
Rather than waiting three hours for the outcome of a game, you can bet on the winner of an individual period, the number of saves made by a goalie or who will score next. Not all sites offer these lines, so you should poke around at a few sites until you find one that has all the bets you want to make.
Also, it helps if a site has a robust mobile platform, as the bets you make will be coming fast and furious. Unless you are sitting in front of your computer when you are watching a game, the odds are you will need to be making in-game bets from your mobile device. Teams are streaky…and so are players Over the course of an 82 game regular season, there are lots of ups and downs for both teams and individual players.
A smart hockey bettor will be watching the daily statistics for streaks in one direction or another. No need for advanced analytics here — you can look for news stories like a top line player being demoted to a lower line in order to break a slump or a team that is just having a hard time winning in a certain building.
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