Bitcoin price prediction 2019
This price boom drew great attention from the media. The downtrend was much longer than previous ones and it made many crypto enthusiasts doubt that BTC could set new price records and enjoy sustained success. However, the minimum price of the third cycle was three times higher than in the previous period. The fourth cycle: Bitcoin winter — winter During the fourth cycle, Bitcoin was taking giant leaps from one price point to another.
But as we all remember, the finest hour for BTC was December After such a tremendous price growth, the crash of the cryosphere was severe and cut the value of BTC by almost five times. It was the longest bearish period in the whole 10 years of Bitcoin history. Today, many analysts claim that Bitcoin has achieved its bottom line and are preparing for another bull run. All four price cycles have the same pattern.
It starts with a gradual price growth which can last for months and proceeds with a booming but short uptrend. In the end, the bottom price is always higher than the price of the previous period. BTC price today: You all know that story, after reaching its historic all-time-high Bitcoin started rapidly falling and dragged all the market with it. The bear market lasted for more than 1.
It gave people a new reasons to doubt cryptocurrencies and call them a bubble. What was behind the recovery? There were several reasons for this. Each platform received an order of about BTC almost at the same time, which caused the market to turn bullish. Technical indicators — Various long term price indicators, including the money flow index MFI and the moving average convergence divergence MACD , showed the possibility of a bearish trend developing. February and March green market — February was the first month in the green after six months of BTC negative returns.
The upward tendency continued through into March. This could have been a trigger for traders when they saw that the market had been trending upward. It is likely that purchasing increased when traders saw that the market was starting to consistently close in the green. At the same time, the Yuan has subsequently fallen to a six month low. Also, there have been signs that Chinese investors are moving their funds to Bitcoin.
This has been backed up by exchange data. According to Dr. The correlation between Yuan and BTC can be seen in the diagram below. It has become more evident in April and May and as the tensions ratcheted up with the weakening of U. June 25 — the US planned to delay extra tariffs on Chinese goods. August 13 — the US delayed setting extra tariffs on Chinese goods because of health, safety, national security and other reasons. Infrastructure development The cryptocurrency industry is constantly building up with new adoption cases, payment processors, etc.
Furthermore, we can also see that if we introduce bidirectionality and allow the model to look both forwards and backwards around a given time, we can also achieve better results. The daily price trend prediction algorithm in this study results in a This is likely due to the data periods used.
Our study spans across around days, whilst their studies were based on around and 60 days respectively—and looking more closely at the the data for the given periods Footnote 13 it is clear that the periods used in their studies were times of rather low volatility by looking at the standard deviation of daily returns Footnote Whilst in our study which makes use of a substantially larger window volatility is seen to fluctuate much more over the whole period.
Daily price change magnitude prediction Fig. The corresponding descriptive statistics can be found in Table 4. Once again, performance is generally worse with a 7-day lag in nearly all cases, whereas the shorter time lag of 1 day results in the best F1 scores. However, the CNN model outperforms the other models on the 3-day lag dataset. This is confirmed by the per-class F1 scores in Fig.
Based on these results, the CNN model can be identified as the best model to predict the magnitude in price change. However, it is worth noting that F1 scores could not be reliably computed for all classes. This is likely due to data sparseness, with few instances of a given class in the test set.
This significant increase in accuracy might suggest that implementing a modular approach which first identifies the direction and then predicts the actual bin for the price change, achieves higher accuracy levels. The underlying hypothesis of this work is that opinions expressed in social media can function as useful predictors of such fluctuations, especially insofar as they incorporate features such as sentiment and opinion.
One important question is whether the predictive value of features gleaned from social media depends on the time lag between their publication and the time of prediction. The experiments presented in this paper show that competitive results can be achieved with a 2-layer BiLSTM model trained on a dataset with a 1-day time lag and using seven different lagged features, meaning that each instance consists of features from tweets from the seven previous days.
This model achieves a maximum accuracy of It must be highlighted, that whilst this configuration heeded the best results, this does not necessarily imply that a 1-day lag always results in better predictions. In fact, from the results presented herein, other temporal lags perform better under other configurations. Therefore, future work should be undertaken to further investigate the impact of temporal lags in more detail.
In addition, the voting classifier also managed to outperform an additional two studies, Galeshchuk et al. Therefore, one would need to reevaluate the accuracy obtained for these studies on larger datasets. In addition, this model manages to achieve a direction accuracy of With regards to how lag affects price, it was evident that in nearly all cases the dataset with 7 days lag performed worst, suggesting that a 7-day lag is too long to capture a predictive relationship between social media content and price.
In general, a 3-day lag results in higher maximum accuracies, though at the expense of lower overall means and a higher variation as reflected in the DBMLA, the difference between minimum and maximum accuracy.
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