Nfl week 3 betting odds and analysis
It seems too much to ask running back Leonard Fournette and the Tampa Bay defense to lead the charge against a well-rounded Packers team. While Aaron Rodgers is trying to form chemistry with the new cast of characters on the fly, he has still led the Packers to a ATS record over their last 13 September games.
In fact, Green Bay has also covered five of its last seven Week 3 contests. The Packers have covered nine of their last 12 games against teams with winning records. Across the league, road underdogs of three points or fewer are ATS since the start of the season. Over that same stretch, underdogs who made the playoffs in the previous season are a strong ATS.
Rodgers undoubtedly has had this game circled on his calendar and we expect a vintage performance from him here, sending the underdog in this head-to-head series to its third straight win and cover. But Mayfield isn't the one giving a field goal on the road. And the Panthers' defense has been almost as efficient 12th as the Saints' ninth. While it downgraded Cincinnati after Joe Burrow and Co.
From the model's perspective, the Bengals have endured two close losses -- albeit to poor teams -- despite being a talented team. A high-end QB with two superb receivers is an excellent recipe for success. And while the Jets pulled out a miraculous victory a week ago, no one should mistake that team for anything other than what it is: a promising collection of offensive talent with an extremely limited quarterback in Joe Flacco and a struggling defense that ranks 31st in efficiency.
There's serious blowout potential here. What is your best bet for Week 3? They were not as good as their record in , and they lost a lot of talent this offseason. That includes not just A. Brown but also Harold Landry II, probably their most important defensive player. Tennessee's cornerbacks will be particularly tested by Davante Adams , who will be the focus of the Raiders' offense with Hunter Renfrow possibly out with a concussion.
The Raiders have also had a reasonable run defense through two games and Derrick Henry looks like he has lost a step, as the Titans are currently 31st in run offense DVOA. Even if these defenses are evenly matched, the Raiders simply have better weapons on the offensive side of the ball, enough to counteract home-field advantage and then some. Marks: 49ers I'm sorry to see Trey Lance go down with an injury, but at the end of the day, the 49ers are a better team with Jimmy G at quarterback.
The 49ers offense will be rolling with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel , and hopefully George Kittle finally gets to dress! The Broncos have 25 penalties for yards in two games, and Nathaniel Hackett has already shown horrible clock management.
Shawn Hochulis' crew is calling the game, which is advantageous to the 49ers, considering this group calls a lot of false start penalties. Snellings: Rams at Cardinals over These two defenses have struggled through the first two games. The Rams got torched by Josh Allen in their first game, but also allowed 27 points to the Falcons in Week 2. The Cardinals got incinerated by the Chiefs in the opener and allowed 23 points to the Raiders in the first three quarters before their furious comeback in the fourth quarter and overtime.
Both defenses can generate big plays off turnovers, as well, which could also add to the point total. I'm looking for this to be an old-fashioned, western shootout. What is your favorite player prop? Schatz: Jerick McKinnon over This is a bit of a counterintuitive pick. The Colts' run defense is the one thing that has been good in the first couple weeks, currently No. But Jerick McKinnon has played a clear role in the Kansas City run game early this season as the switch-up for Clyde Edwards-Helaire , with 34 rushing yards so far.
I expect the Chiefs to be controlling this game late and running out the clock, which means McKinnon's going to get his opportunities and top this tiny rushing total. Fulghum: Dalvin Cook over Don't be spooked by Cook's Week 2 box score.
Yes, he only carried the ball six times, but context is important. The Eagles demolished the Vikings from start to finish. Back in Week 1, Cook had 20 carries against a methodical Packers team because of the positive game script. Not only will he be a back playing as a home favorite, but he is facing the Detroit Lions.
Dan Campbell's bunch has become the ideal opponent in for opportunity and production. Moody: Patrick Mahomes over 2. I'm drawn to this at plus odds. The Chiefs have one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. Only the Buccaneers Mahomes is known for his dominant performances in September.
I expect the Chiefs to score 40 points in this game and most of them through the air. Mahomes has averaged 3. It will be difficult for the Colts' defense to slow down the Kansas City's high-octane offense. Play for Free Dolan: Leonard Fournette over
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The Seahawks defense alone may cover this spread. OK, that's a bit over the top, but I'm banking on the Jaguars not scoring more than six points in this game. The risk here is you could get burnt by a late backdoor cover while Seattle goes into a prevent defense and allows Jacksonville to march down the field with ease.
I still say this game has blowout written all over it. I've been impressed by Buffalo quarterback E. Manuel in his first two weeks. The Bills have played hard under new coach Doug Marrone and seem inspired by the rookie quarterback. The Jets defense has played well over the first two weeks, and could give the Manuel some trouble, but that's where C.
Spiller comes in. Meanwhile, the Jets offense remains completely putrid. Even more astounding, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg seems intent on letting rookie quarterback Geno Smith air things out instead of pounding the ball with the combination of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory. Big mistake.
Mantzouranis: Lions at Redskins, over You saw what Aaron Rodgers did to the Redskins secondary last week? He wasn't throwing the ball to Megatron. The Lions' defense isn't all that great, either, despite their middle-of-the-pack ranking. Robert Griffin III now has two games under his belt, and he's endured a week of hearing people doubt him and even call for his benching.
He may not still be the same old RGIII, but I think he's capable of putting up enough points to do Washington's part in reaching the over. Vikings —6. Have you been following the news this week? Dolphins —1 vs. Baltimore's defense is giving up The Browns feature the league's most explosive rushing attack, averaging Browns running back Nick Chubb leads the league with rushing yards and seven touchdowns. There is a broad range of outcomes for this game, which is why the model is suggesting another matchup for your Week 7 NFL survivor picks.
See which team you should pick here. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott thumb is expected to be back after missing five games and couldn't come back to a more friendly matchup. The Lions have given up the eighth-most yards to opposing offenses this season.
Detroit is coming off of a bye week, which is typically considered a game planning advantage, but most of the Cowboys' film this season has featured Cooper Rush at quarterback. In three career games against the Lions, Prescott has completed The model predicts that Prescott will have another top performance, with more than passing yards and two touchdowns.
A successful return from Prescott is the primary reason the Cowboys are projected to win in 75 percent of simulations. It's also backing a shocking team in its NFL survivor picks. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
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